Friday, April 19, 2024

Full Steam Ahead for Chinese Navy Port Calls in Africa

 The South China Morning Post published on 13 April 2024 an article titled "Chinese Navy Steers a Course for African Ports in Beijing's Renewed Diplomatic Push" by Jevans Nyabiage.  

Following a hiatus, except for regular port calls at its naval base in Djibouti, during COVID-19, China's Navy has resumed them in Africa.  The PLA Navy's most recent visits took place at ports in Tanzania, Mozambique, and Madagascar.  

Camels and Climate Change in the Horn of Africa

 The Washington Post published on 17 April 2024 a fascinating story titled "The Survivor Species" by Chico Harlan, Rael Ombuor, and Malin Fezehai.  

Having lost many of their cattle because of drought, traditional herders are turning to camels for milk.  Resistant to climate change, camels may help save lives in the drought-stricken region of the Horn of Africa.  The article offers outstanding color photographs and video montages from Samburu County, Kenya.  

Sudan's Second Year of War Begins: Four Priorities to Deal with It

 The US Institute of Peace published on 18 April 2024 a commentary titled "Four Priorities for Sudan a Year into the Civil War" by Susan Stigant.

The author proposes four priorities for mitigating the impact of Sudan's civil war, which has completed its first year:

--Develop and execute a coherent strategy among the special envoys for Sudan from the United States, United Nations, and African Union.

--Prioritize the provision of humanitarian assistance.

--De-escalate conflict in those parts of Sudan at most risk of mass violence.

--Get back to basics in the next round of the Jeddah peace talks.  

Summarizing Sudan's Humanitarian Crisis

 The Council on Foreign Relations published on 16 April 2024 an analysis titled "What Is the Extent of Sudan's Humanitarian Crisis?" by Mariel Ferragamo and Diana Roy.

The conflict in Sudan, which has been raging for one year, is destroying the infrastructure, breaking down the health system, has caused the world's largest internal displacement crisis, created a major refugee problem, and may result in the world's largest hunger crisis.

Pledges at International Humanitarian Conference for Sudan

 The French Ministry of Foreign Affairs published on 15 April 2024 a press release titled "International Humanitarian Conference for Sudan and Neighboring Countries."

France, Germany, and the European Union hosted in Paris on 15 April an international humanitarian pledging conference for Sudan and refugees in neighboring countries.  The conference raised $2.2 billion.

The press release included a listing of the individual financial pledges.

The World Bank pledged the most at $555 million, followed by the EU ($385 million), Germany ($265 million), the United States ($162 million), and France ($119 million).  Notably absent from the pledging conference were China, Russia, and all Arab countries except for the UAE ($100 million), Saudi Arabia ($61 million), and Qatar ($25 million).  

Protecting Civilians in Sudan

 The IPI Global Observatory published on 15 April 2024 a commentary titled "One Year Ago, War Broke Out in Sudan.  What Can Be Done to Prioritize Protection of Civilians?" by Julie Gregory, Stimson Center.

There is no UN entity in Sudan focused on the comprehensive protection of civilians.  The UN can only verify and report human rights violations.  There are few good options for addressing this omission.  The best approach for protection of civilians is to incorporate protection issues into the Jeddah peace process led by Saudi Arabia and the United States.

Thursday, April 18, 2024

US Special Envoy for Sudan Discusses Prospects for Peace

 The International Crisis Group posted on 15 April 2024 a 38-minute podcast titled "New U.S. Envoy on Ending Sudan's War" with Tom Perriello, U.S. Special Envoy for Sudan, and Alan Boswell.  

Perriello said the immediate goal is to resume talks in Jeddah hosted by Saudi Arabia and the United States with key actors in the dispute and to seek agreement for an end to the fighting and eventually a return to establishing a civilian government in Sudan.  The talks need to be inclusive and consolidate earlier peace processes.

A split or divided Sudan would not be a good outcome.  The major challenge to peace is the lack of trust among the belligerents and ensuring that Sudan's civil society is part of the process.  Perriello is hopeful the sharply deteriorated humanitarian situation will serve as an incentive for all actors to make a more concentrated effort to end the fighting.

Niger Signs Oil Deal with China as It Moves Away from France and US

 The South China Morning Post published on 17 April 2024 an article titled "Chinese State Firm Agrees to US$400m Loan for Niger Junta in Return for Oil" by Jevans Nyabiage.

Niger's military government signed a $400 million deal with the China National Petroleum Corporation, which will be repaid in crude oil shipments within 12 months at an interest rate of 7 percent.  This deal comes as Niger turns away from France and the United States and towards China and Russia.

Wednesday, April 17, 2024

Chinese Loans and Labor Fall in Kenya and Across Africa

 Kenya's Business Daily published on 15 April 2024 an article titled "Why Chinese Expats and China Firms' Earnings Continue to Drop" by Dominic Omondi.  

The article notes the drop in Chinese contract labor and loans for infrastructure in Kenya and across Africa following a peak in China's loans to Africa in 2016.  

Sudan Is Not a Lost Cause

 Foreign Policy published on 17 April 2024 a commentary titled "Sudan Is Not a Lost Cause" by Suha Musa, a Sudan researcher.  

The author argues that discussion of Sudan as a lost cause discourages international attention and assistance, allowing apathy to set in.  There needs to be more support for community and grassroots organizations, which remain committed to a peaceful country.  

Sudan: How Two Generals Wrecked Their Country

 The New York Times published on 15 April 2024 an article titled "One Year of War in Sudan: How Two Rival Generals Wrecked Their Country" by Abdi Latif Dahir and Declan Walsh.

After one year of war in Sudan between Abdel Fattah al-Burhan's Sudan Armed Forces and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, the article summarizes the destruction that now constitutes Africa's third largest country.  

Ethiopia: UN Donor Conference Comes Up Short

 Reuters published on 16 April 2024 an article titled "UN Raises Over $600 mln to Boost Aid to Ethiopia."

A UN-hosted pledging conference raised $629 million in humanitarian assistance for Ethiopia, well short of the $1 billion goal.  The biggest donor was the United States at $253 million, followed by the United Kingdom at $125 million.  

Monday, April 15, 2024

US Announces New Aid for Sudan

 National Public Radio posted on 15 April 2024 an interview with US ambassador Linda Thomas Greenfield titled "The U.S.Announces New Aid for Sudan, Where Civil War Broke Out a Year Ago."

The United States announced $100 million in new food aid for Sudan, bringing total American aid to Sudan to $1 billion since the conflict began a year ago.

Saturday, April 13, 2024

Chinese Peacekeepers End Service in Democratic Republic of Congo

 Defence Web published on 12 April 2024 an article titled "Chinese Sappers Exit DR Congo after 20 Years."

The DRC has asked the UN peacekeeping mission of 15,000 to shut down.  The People's Liberation Army (PLA) has provided an engineering unit for 20 years.   As a result of the DRC decision, the current PLA contingent of 220 ended its contribution last week, leaving a large Chinese peacekeeping force in only one African country--South Sudan.

Friday, April 12, 2024

Sudan Talks Falter and War Expands

 Atlas News published on 12 April 2024 an article titled "Sudan Talks Pushed Back as War Expands" by Sebastien Gray.

The proposed 18 April date for the resumption of peace talks between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Saudi Arabia has been pushed back to a time that has not yet been agreed upon.  A collection of militias in north Darfur known as the Joint Force has aligned with the SAF against the RSF, which controls most of Darfur.

Russian Troops Arrive in Niger

 The Washington Post published on 12 April 2024 an article titled "Russian Soldiers Arrive in Niger as Relationship with U.S. Deteriorates" by Rachel Chason.

Russian soldiers have arrived in Niger to train the Nigerien army, presumably replacing American trainers who remain at their base in the country.  It is not clear what will happen to the U.S. forces.

Thursday, April 11, 2024

Africa Corps and Terrorist Attacks in Niger; Ethiopia-Somalia Tension; Al-Shabaab in Somalia

 Critical Threats Africa File published on 11 April 2024 several items titled "Kremlin's Africa Corps Nears Niger; Ethiopia-Somalia Rift Widens; al-Qaeda Affiliates Strengthen in the Sahel and Horn" by Liam Karr, Matthew Gianitsos, and Josie von Fischer.  

Russia is reported ready to send an Africa Corps contingent to Niger.  An al-Qaeda affiliate has increased its attacks in western Niger since the beginning of 2024.  Ethiopia is advancing bilateral partnerships with autonomous regions in northern Somalia, escalating tensions between the Somali Federal government and Ethiopia.  Al-Shabaab has stepped up attacks in south central Somalia.

Sudan: Halting External Support for Two Military Sides

 The Atlantic Council published on 10 April 2024 a commentary titled "A Diplomatic Solution in Sudan Demands Greater US Engagement with Its Arab Allies" by Menal Fatima.

Halting external support by Arab countries such as the UAE and Egypt for one of the competing armies in Sudan is essential to ending the conflict and putting the country on a path to civilian-led rule.

Sudan after a Year of Civil War

 The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 11 April 2024 a statement titled "Sudan: A Year of War."

The ICG offers a summary over the past year of the conflict in Sudan between the Sudan Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.

Iranian Drones Help Sudan's Army against Rapid Support Forces

 Reuters published on 10 April 2024 an article titled "Sudan Civil War: Are Iranian Drones Helping the Army Gain Ground?" by Khalid Abdelaziz, Parisa Hafezi, and Aidan Lewis.

Iranian-made drones have helped the Sudan Armed Forces turn the tide of war against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces by pinpointing positions in the Khartoum capital area for artillery strikes.  In return, Iran gets a staging post on Sudan's Red Sea coast.

Tuesday, April 9, 2024

Nigerian Researcher Analyzes Ethiopia-Somaliland Deal

 The Al Jazeera Centre for Studies, an independent research institution, published on 1 April 2024 an analysis titled "The Ethiopian-Somali Red Sea Agreement in the Context of the Geopolitical Rivalry in the Horn of Africa" by Hakeem Alade Najimdeen, a Nigerian researcher.

A West African researcher provides an analysis of the controversial and oft discussed Memorandum of Understanding between Ethiopia and Somaliland.  


Monday, April 8, 2024

Ethiopia Back on the Brink

 Foreign Affairs posted on 8 April 2024 a commentary titled "Ethiopia Back on the Brink" by Alex de Waal and Mulugeta Gebrehiwot Berhe, both with the World Peace Foundation at Tufts University.

The authors point out that the war in Tigray Region has been followed by rebellion in Amhara Region and continuing unrest in Oromia.  Famine threatens both Tigray and Amhara Regions.  The United Arab Emirates is keeping the Abiy Ahmed government afloat but is also encouraging reckless projects.  

Study Finds Trucking Preferred Over Kenya's Chinese-built Railway

 The Standard published on 7 April 2024 an article titled "Manufacturers Shun Railway over Cost, Flexibility Concerns" by Brian Ngugi.

A study by the Kenya Association of Manufacturers found that trucking is still the preferred way to move cargo following completion of the Chinese-built standard gauge railway (SGR) from the port of Mombasa to Naivasha.  Trucking is less costly, more flexible, and avoids other limitations of the SGR, which does not have last mile connectivity.  Nor has the railway project identified a source of funding to extend the SGR to the Ugandan border and eventually Kampala.   

Saturday, April 6, 2024

China's Cultural Presence in Africa

 The Stuttgart-based Institut fur Auslandsbeziehungen published in 2023 a major study titled "China's Institutionalised Cultural Presence in Africa: Cultural Investments, Perceptions and Implications for China-Africa Cultural Relations" by Avril Joffe.

This study, which is available online, provides insight into Chinese international cultural policy.  There is a special focus on South Africa, Ghana, Kenya, and Nigeria.  There are sections on China's strategy in Africa, Chinese investments in cultural infrastructure, media, film, music, Confucius Institutes, libraries, studying in China, and perceptions of China in Africa.  

Ethiopia, Turkey, Somalia, and Somaliland: It's Complicated

 The Conversation published on 3 April 2024 a commentary titled "Turkey and Ethiopia Have Had Close Ties for Many Years: Somalia Maritime Deals May Shift the Dynamics" by Michael B. Bishku, Augusta University.  

Long standing Ethiopia-Turkey ties are being put to the test as a result of Ethiopia's deal with Somaliland for a military base and reportedly diplomatic recognition.  Turkey has a military base in Somalia, which opposes the Ethiopia-Somaliland deal, and is training Somali soldiers and equipping its naval force.  This situation poses a dilemma for Turkey's relations with Ethiopia.